{"id":5975,"date":"2022-03-02T00:22:24","date_gmt":"2022-03-02T00:22:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.virginiaknight.org.uk\/vhkssinging\/?p=5975"},"modified":"2022-03-04T21:48:17","modified_gmt":"2022-03-04T21:48:17","slug":"mapprox-3651-exp-n-3651","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.virginiaknight.org.uk\/vhkssinging\/2022\/03\/02\/mapprox-3651-exp-n-3651\/","title":{"rendered":"m=approx 365(1-exp(-N\/365))+1"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It was my birthday earlier this week and in the evening I went to choir.  Every few weeks on average this particular choir sings &#8216;Happy Birthday&#8217; to one of its members, and I wondered whether this happened for any choir member who went to a rehearsal on their birthday, or just for those who are on the committee or help out in some other way.<\/p>\n<p>The formula above, supplied by a mathematician friend, tells you how many different birthdays you might expect in a group of N people.  For 100 people it&#8217;s about 88.  Another mathematician friend ran a numerical simulation which agreed with this.  (I know it was that time of year, but let&#8217;s ignore February 29th for this calculation.)<\/p>\n<p>As there are about 100 people in the room at a typical choir practice (such as yesterday&#8217;s), and as far as I know no sets of twins in the choir, the formula above gives a chance of just under 1 in 4 that it is the birthday of at least one of them.  Of course if it is in fact your birthday, you are more likely to give choir a miss that week and spend the evening with your family or down the pub.  That suggests that &#8216;Happy Birthday&#8217; might get sung about one week in six, which seems about right &#8211; and implies that all choir members are entitled to be serenaded with it on the appropriate day.<\/p>\n<p>What actually happened was that we were invited to sing &#8216;Happy Birthday&#8217; &#8211; to an alto who shares my birthday.  I quickly piped up that it was mine too, so both our names were included.  Although as a relative newcomer most people either didn&#8217;t know mine at all (it wasn&#8217;t I think announced) or thought they did, but in fact didn&#8217;t.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It was my birthday earlier this week and in the evening I went to choir. Every few weeks on average this particular choir sings &#8216;Happy Birthday&#8217; to one of its members, and I wondered whether this happened for any choir &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.virginiaknight.org.uk\/vhkssinging\/2022\/03\/02\/mapprox-3651-exp-n-3651\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[8],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.virginiaknight.org.uk\/vhkssinging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5975"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.virginiaknight.org.uk\/vhkssinging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.virginiaknight.org.uk\/vhkssinging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.virginiaknight.org.uk\/vhkssinging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.virginiaknight.org.uk\/vhkssinging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5975"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"http:\/\/www.virginiaknight.org.uk\/vhkssinging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5975\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5982,"href":"http:\/\/www.virginiaknight.org.uk\/vhkssinging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5975\/revisions\/5982"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.virginiaknight.org.uk\/vhkssinging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5975"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.virginiaknight.org.uk\/vhkssinging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5975"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.virginiaknight.org.uk\/vhkssinging\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5975"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}